Analyzing critical mineral supply for lithium-ion battery demand to 2050

Author

• Shaely SullivanFollow

Graduation Date

Spring 2026

Document Type

Thesis

Program

Master of Science degree with a major in Environmental Systems, option Energy, Technology, and Policy

Committee Chair Name

Kevin Fingerman

Committee Chair Affiliation

Cal Poly Humboldt Faculty or Staff

Second Committee Member Name

William Fisher

Second Committee Member Affiliation

Cal Poly Humboldt Faculty or Staff

Third Committee Member Name

Peter Alstone

Keywords

Energy transition, Intermittent resources, Battery storage, Li-ion batteries, Stationary storage projections, Electric vehicles projections, Mineral demand projections, Battery recycling, Critical minerals, Mineral supply chains, Lithium, Cobalt, Graphite, Nickel, Manganese

Subject Categories

Environmental Systems

Abstract

Battery storage is fundamental in the global initiative to mitigate anthropogenic climate change by decarbonizing the electric power grid and transportation sector. Battery storage stabilizes intermittent energy sources, such as solar and wind, and enables clean transportation through electric vehicles. Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used battery chemistry globally due to their performance capabilities. Therefore, demand for lithium-ion batteries is projected to increase exponentially over the next several decades, driven by the growth of electric vehicles. This thesis projects global demand for electric vehicles and stationary storage, to assess the supply risks for critical minerals essential to lithium-ion batteries. The minerals deemed strategically important to global economies’ well-being and national security in the energy transition are lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and manganese. These mineral supply chains are at risk due to geopolitical tensions, physical availability, and the socio-environmental externalities from extraction. These risks have raised questions about the overall sustainability of Li-ion batteries, which are often labeled as a green technology. These concerns have led to the development of solutions to mitigate the impacts of rising mineral demand. Recycling lithium-ion batteries reduces reliance on virgin materials, in turn, reducing supply risks and creating a more sustainable global mineral supply chain.

Citation Style

APA

Recommended Citation

Sullivan, Shaely, "Analyzing critical mineral supply for lithium-ion battery demand to 2050" (2026). Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects. 2576.
https://digitalcommons.humboldt.edu/etd/2576