The rising thunder El Nino and stock markets

Graduation Date

2015

Document Type

Project

Program

Other

Program

Project (M.B.A.)--Humboldt State University, Business Administration, 2015

Committee Chair Name

Michelle Lane

Committee Chair Affiliation

HSU Faculty or Staff

Keywords

El Nino, Financial market, Humboldt State University -- Projects -- Business Administration

Abstract

Every year, new theories are generated that seek to describe changes in the pricing of equities on the stock market and changes in economic conditions worldwide. There are currently theories that address the market value of stocks in relation to the underlying performance of their financial assets, known as bottom up investing, or value investing. There are also theories that intend to link the performance of stocks to economic factors such as changes in Gross Domestic Product, changes in imports and exports, and changes in Consumer price index as well as other factors, known as top down investing. Much of the current thinking explains much of the current movements in financial markets and economies worldwide but no theory exists that explains all of the movements in financial markets. This paper intends to propose the postulation that some of the unexplained movements in financial markets may be perpetuated by a consistently occurring weather phenomenon, known as El Nino. This paper intends to provide a literature review, documenting currently known trends of the occurrence of El Nino coinciding with the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies, as well as to conduct a statistical analysis to explore whether there are any statistical relationships between the occurrence of El Nino and the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies. The purposes of this analysis are to discover if there is a relationship and to see how strong of a relationship exists; and the analysis will be considered a success if this paper can conclude if a relationship exists between El Nino's and fluctuations in financial markets and economies.

https://scholarworks.calstate.edu/concern/theses/05741t941

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